Six years on from the March 2020 lockdown, the story of New Zealand’s housing market has come full circle – from boom and gloom to a far more balanced and nuanced chapter says Quotable Value. Growth has slowed significantly, with values reducing by 0.4 percent over the past year.
The urgency that defined the residential property market through 2020 and 2021 has long gone, replaced by a much more cautious and measured decision-making process says QV spokesperson Simon Petersen.
“The housing market of 2026 seems to be defined more by caution rather than urgency. Buyers are more considered, vendors are more realistic, and overall activity is tracking closer to longer-term norms. Everything is more or less in balance right now.
“After several years of volatility, a more predictable housing market gives both buyers and sellers greater confidence and it reduces the risk of another sharp correction – even with ongoing global uncertainty,” says Petersen concluded.
The latest QV House Price Index shows national home values are now 21.6 percent higher than they were six years ago. However, growth has slowed significantly, with values reducing by just 0.4 percent over the past year, including a reduction of 0.1 percent over the three months to the end of March 2026.
“The past six years have really been a story of two extremes — incredibly rapid, unsustainable growth, followed by a sharp correction, and then a gradual return to normal,” Petersen says.
“It’s now a much more stable and balanced housing market that’s behaving more like it used to, back before Covid-19. There’s less urgency, more negotiation, and a stronger focus on fundamentals like affordability and supply.
“The frenzy we saw through 2020 and 2021 may be long gone now, but values are still sitting above where they were before the pandemic for the most part, without adjusting for inflation,” he says.
Across the main centres, Auckland’s average home value is 9.6 percent higher than it was six years ago, despite modest declines of 3.8 percent in the past 12 months and 0.6 percent this quarter.
Christchurch continues to stand out, with the average home value now 55 percent above its March 2020 level.
The city largely avoided the sharpest part of the downturn and has recorded modest growth of 3.1 percent over the past 12 months and 0.9 percent this quarter.
In contrast, Wellington’s average home value is now 0.2 percent less than it was at the end of March 2020. It has reduced by five percent in the past 12 months and by 0.8 percent this quarter.
“The higher-priced markets felt the boom and the correction more sharply,” Petersen says. “But no part of the country was untouched. Regional and lifestyle areas also saw strong gains as buyers looked for more space and flexibility during the lockdown period.”
“While values remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, those gains are significantly smaller once inflation is taken into account,” he adds.
“The market looks markedly different from both the highs of 2020 and 2021 and the lows that followed. Growth has stabilised, activity levels are closer to longer-term averages, and differences between regions are being driven more by local conditions than a single national trend.
“In practical terms,” Petersen says, “buyers are taking their time, vendors have adjusted their expectations to meet the market for the most part and price movements are now much more modest as a result.”
